Black Friday discounts vary widely

Shoppers beware — not all discounts are equal on the always-chaotic Black Friday.

The world's largest retailer, Wal-Mart, is being noticeably more aggressive on price cuts this year, while Sears' average discounts are less aggressive compared to last holiday season, according to an analysis of Black Friday ads by Jefferies & Co. retail analyst Daniel Binder.

"Wal-Mart stepped up the depth of promotions this year, with about 15 percent higher average discounts than last year," Binder said in his report. "(It) stands to gain the most improvement year-to-year on a day where a certain breed of super value-seekers are shopping based heavily on price."

The Retailers Association of Massachusetts expects Bay State holiday sales to increase 3.5 percent from last year, to approximately $15 billion, after a 2.8 percent jump in 2012. That's slightly below the 3.9 percent rise forecast by the National Retail Federation for nationwide sales in November and December totaling an estimated $602.1 billion.

RAM's member retailers are apprehensive about six fewer days this year between Thanksgiving and Christmas, although they're hoping very good retail sales since August's state sales tax holiday will continue and offset the short calendar, according to the association's president Jon Hurst.

"A good third of all purchases are impulse buys," Hurst said. "That's where, hopefully, you're going to pick up some of your profit margin. With a short window, you have less days for the opportunity for those trips to the store."

Kohl's, which leads in discounts on regular prices among chain stores, is averaging 4.8 percent higher average discounts for Black Friday compared to last year to lure in some of those shoppers, according to the Jefferies report. Sears' average Black Friday discount, meanwhile, is about 21.5 percent less than last year, when it sharply reduced prices.

"We're expecting a great weekend," said Laurel Sibert, vice president of corporate marketing for WS Development, whose shopping centers include Legacy Place in Dedham, The Street in Chestnut Hill, MarketStreet in Lynnfield and the South Shore's Derby Street Shoppes.

But if you plan to stay away from the stores today, you won't be alone. Fifty-six percent of Americans plan to skip Black Friday shopping this year, according to a Consumer Reports poll, and the top three reasons are too many crowds, over-hyped deals and the desire to do something else.

"There's a very large misconception that Black Friday is the biggest sales day of the season," Hurst said. "The Saturday right before Christmas is by far the biggest."

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