A recovering housing market and resilient consumers boosted the Bay State economy in the third quarter, but federal fiscal policies continue to restrain growth, according to a University of Massachusetts journal.
Massachusetts real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent, well above the national rate of 2.8 percent and more than double the state rate of 1.7 percent in the second quarter, according to the latest MassBenchmarks published by the UMass Donahue Institute in collaboration with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
The improvement was due to slow but better job growth, a recovering housing market, rising incomes and a higher rate of spending on goods subject to sales tax — all providing some relief from the fiscal drag of the across-the-board cuts in federal spending known as sequestration and higher payroll taxes than last year.
"The state housing market, as well as consumer spending, have both firmed up, perhaps more so than nationally," said Robert Nakosteen, executive editor of MassBenchmarks and professor of economics and statistics at the UMass-Amherst Isenberg School of Management. "However, pushing the other way, the sequester and global weakness is hurting the state. The balance seems to be favorable."
Both Nakosteen and MassBenchmarks' senior contributing editor, Alan Clayton-Matthews, cautioned, however, that their estimate of the state's economic growth in the third quarter is based on incomplete data because last month's federal government shutdown caused a delay in the state's employment report for September until Nov. 22.
Using the national employment report for September and the historical average relationship between U.S. and Massachusetts employment, MassBenchmarks estimated the state's missing September payroll employment data at 1,000 new jobs, indicating that state employment expanded at an annualized rate of growth of 0.7 percent in the third quarter. In contrast, during the second quarter, payroll employment declined at a 0.3 percent annualized rate, said Clayton-Matthews, associate professor of economics and public policy at Northeastern University.
Nationally, the 2.8 percent annual rate at which real GDP grew in the third quarter was "a tepid number by itself, but still the fastest growth seen so far in 2013," said Doug Handler, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington.
"The consensus growth rate was around 2 percent, with most of the gap traceable to a buildup of inventories," Handler said, referring to goods that collect in warehouses and on retailers' shelves.
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