Massachusetts gas prices climbed 10 cents in the past week and are likely to keep going up before leveling off this spring or summer — but they are likely to stay below the $3 mark, analysts say.
The average price for a gallon of regular gas yesterday was $2.37, according to gasbuddy.com, and will continue to rise for the next month or two as refineries do maintenance, said Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst at gasbuddy.com.
"A portion of those refineries have to temporarily go offline, which limits the amount of gas they're producing," DeHaan said. "Less gas being supplied equals higher prices."
Gas stations also are beginning to transition to the cleaner-burning, more expensive kind of gas mandated in the spring and summer under the 1993 Clean Air Act, he said. Massachusetts prices are still lower, however, than the national average of $2.43 for a gallon of regular gasoline.
Even prices here, however, could increase by another 20 to 35 cents in the weeks ahead, he said, although it's unlikely that they'll go as high as $3 per gallon because the price of crude oil is about $50 per barrel, compared with $103 per barrel a year ago.
"That's why prices this summer should be relatively cheap," DeHaan said. "The Saudis last fall began undercutting the price of oil to regain market share due to the rise in U.S. oil production, so the price of crude suddenly plummeted."
"Much of the increase in the national average is because prices in the West Coast and Great Lakes have rebounded significantly in the last month, pulling the national average up, while Boston prices remain soft," DeHaan said. "The staggering winter season you've had has muted gasoline demand, and increases haven't hit as quickly because the level of gasoline inventories remains healthy there."
Meanwhile, consumer spending bounced back in January after taking into account sharply lower gas and energy prices, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Overall spending actually fell for the second straight month, the first time that's happened since the Great Recession. But economists said the decline was misleading because it was caused by the steep decline in energy prices. When adjusted for inflation, which has been low as oil prices have plunged, consumer spending actually rose 0.3 percent in January.
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